For 30 post-Soviet years, the Kremlin showed a fundamental inability to create an effective economy.
Russia has remained a raw material appendage of Europe, and now is turning into a raw material litter for China.
Therefore, the Kremlin clique suffers from an inferiority complex and spitefully envies the prosperous West.
The Kremlin does not want to seize Ukraine and does not want to restore the USSR.
Under the slogan "Unification of the Russian World", the Kremlin maniacally wants to avenge on the West for the humiliating defeat in the Cold War, and not only to take revenge, but to realize Stalin's goal of establishing control over decrepit Europe.
In the first stage of a new conflict with the West, Ukraine and the countries of the ex-USSR and Eastern Europe will be subordinated or captured by the Kremlin.
Over the past 20 years, Europe has pumped trillions of petro-euros into Russia.
On these trillions, the Kremlin Monster grew, got stronger, and matured.
The West sold military technology, equipment, and components to the Kremlin.
On these trillions and Western technologies, the Kremlin builds precision missiles, atomic submarines, airplanes, tanks, and maintains an army and a repressive apparatus.
As a result of the Syrian campaign, the Kremlin has considered that it is already strong enough to challenge the West.
For 20 years, the West indifferently watched the strengthening of revanchism and the massive armament of the Kremlin, including strategic thermonuclear missiles.
Despite a clearly growing threat, as in the 1930s, the European elites flippantly destroyed their armies.
Moreover, they stupidly increased their multibillion-euro payments and deliveries of high technologies to the Kremlin.
The main idea of the Kremlin – the USSR suffered the shameful defeat only because the impudent West was confident in the impotence of the senile Communist Political Bureau and was not afraid of a war with the USSR.
Currently, in the Kremlin's opinion, the global situation has become the opposite. The West is weakening and decrepit. The West is crowds of cowardly chatterboxes and fat “pansies”.
European armies have atrophied. Arms production is curtailed. Defense reserves have been disposed of. European economies are not able to revive their armies and the military-industrial complex.
The United States has real military power. But America is far away. Its strategic weapons are outdated and rusty.
The gerontocratic, weakening, preoccupied with genders and abortions, the United States will not start a thermonuclear war because of the occupation of the countries of the ex-USSR and the former socialist camp.
But the Kremlin has renewed the strategic and tactical weapons of its army. The “cult of personality” of the President militarizes the mass consciousness of Russia. Most Russians hate Western liberal Satanists and are ready to return to the Soviet “trench routine”.
The army gained combat experience in Syria.
Therefore, the Kremlin intended to clearly show the Western elites, and also the Communist Political Bureau of China, that the era of Russia's shameful weakness is over, that the Kremlin is technically and morally ready to massively kill the population of the West and massively sacrifice the Russians. To do this, the Kremlin began the Special Military Operation. “Beat Ukrainians so that the West is afraid!”
The Kremlin clique failed to capture Ukraine in a week, as it had planned.
Before the war, the FSB stole $5 billion allocated by the Kremlin to bribe Ukraine's generals and politicians.
Therefore, the treason occurred only on the Crimean front, where traitor generals opened the way for the Russian troops and gave them the opportunity to quickly capture Tavria, Antonovsky bridge, Kherson, Melitopol, Berdyansk, and connect with Donbass.
On other fronts, the Armed Forces of Ukraine resisted the aggressor.
President of Ukraine V. Zelensky is of particular importance in this resistance.
Without his own systemic political force, an inexperienced, young "Jew" of small stature accidentally found himself at the center of world politics.
During the capture of Kyiv, the Russian special forces had to kill the President to free up space for the Kremlin protege. According to all war scenarios, the President was supposed to and had the opportunity to evacuate urgently to the West.
In the acute situation of 2014, the brutal boor V. Yanukovych was frightened, sold out to save his stolen capital in the West, and abandoned his people to the mercy of fate.
President V. Zelensky, like Stalin in 1941, understood that his flight would cause mass panic and the collapse of defense, and remained at his post, becoming a hero of Ukraine's history.
Jews are known for their increased adaptability to complex circumstances.
But this people are famous for a few individuals of a special breed – “God's fingers”. They are not opportunists, but fighters and revolutionaries, creators and innovators, who stubbornly achieve their goals, faithfully do their work, and fulfill their moral duty. They do not bend before the World, but change it, striving to make it better.
To everyone's surprise, President V. Zelensky turned out to be of this breed. He remained at his combat position under the sights of the enemy. He conscientiously performs his duties, represents Ukraine with dignity, and involves the whole World in the fight against Russian aggression.
The main weapons of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are not HIMARSes and howitzers, but the Pentagon’s supercomputers and Elon Musk’s satellites that control the crews of all Ukrainian combat vehicles, direct each soldier to his position and indicate the targets’ coordinates that he has to hit.
So while Russian generals are still sharpening their pencils and drawing arrows on their maps, Ukrainian combat vehicles are already taking up positions and firing their precision-guided weapons.
Throughout the post-Soviet years, the Russian Ministry of Defense generals embezzled the budget of their army. Therefore, Russian troops are poorly armed and equipped. Drunken generals do not know how to command effectively.
Ukrainians blame Russia for centuries of Ukraine's troubles, including 30 post-Soviet years of independence, and they hate Russians for it. This hatred fuels their strong fighting spirit. And the parade courage of the Russian army in the first weeks of the war quickly disappeared under the blows of the Ukrainian army.
The Russian troops do not understand the meaning and purpose of this war, do not have effective weapons, and see the incompetence of the command.
Therefore, they do not have the motivation to fight and die in this war.
Ukraine's September offensive raised hopes for an early victory over Russia.
However, real circumstances do not justify such hopes.
The Kremlin understands that with NATO support, Ukraine is a strong opponent.
Therefore, from an expeditionary “blitzkrieg”, the Kremlin is moving to a strategy of a big war and long-term mobilization of the entire country – millions of reservists, an increase in the training of officers, the transformation of civilian factories into military ones, increased propaganda and repression.
Deficiencies in Western high-tech components will worsen the quality of Russian weapons. Smuggling and supplies from China and other Asian countries will partially reduce these deficits.
However, the worsening of weapon quality will be compensated by a multiple increase in its quantity.
Generals and officers learn from their mistakes and improve their command.
The large losses of their comrades arouse the anger of Russian fighters and strengthen their fighting spirit.
Ukrainians harbor illusions that the interests of the whole world are directed towards this war, that the West loves Ukraine, will save it and provide it with resources.
In reality, the majority of the Western population does not distinguish Ukraine from Bahrain. And those who distinguish, know that Ukraine is a very corrupt country in which everything was stolen, including weapon reserves. Corruption has caused mass poverty, which has caused conflict in the Donbass.
Based on this reputation, Western taxpaying voters and politicians suspect that much of the resources directed to Ukraine are being cashed out and ending up offshores. In the conditions of an economic crisis, they do not want to lose hundreds of billions of dollars going to Ukraine. Moreover, in 2023, the global crisis will intensify significantly.
The goal of the West is not to protect and liberate Ukraine, but to weaken Russia without the risk of thermonuclear war.
Western politicians are afraid of a war with Russia and try not to anger the Kremlin.
They do not want Ukraine, with its dubious reputation, to gain too much influence in Europe.
Weapon stocks and productions in the West have been significantly reduced or ceased.
Due to these circumstances, the West will not supply Ukraine with weapons in the quantities necessary for a quick victory over Russia.
Under the current conditions, the following strategic scenario can be realized.
The Kremlin will stockpile weapons and train reservists for several months.
The Kremlin will destroy the Dnieper bridges, primarily railway ones, with missile strikes.
If the bridges withstand and the Ukrainian army advances successfully, the Kremlin will get angry and hit the bridges with tactical nuclear missiles.
The destruction of the bridges will reduce the supply of the Ukrainian army with weapons and ammunition by several times.
The Ukrainian army will weaken and will not be able to contain the attacks of Russian forces.
In the spring of 2023, the Kremlin will begin a big offensive.
In the autumn of 2023, the Ukrainian army will leave entire Left-bank Ukraine and retreat beyond the Dnieper.
The Kremlin will relocate its army to Belarus.
In the winter of 2024, when the Polessie marshes freeze, the Kremlin will launch an invasion of its army from Belarus to the western border of Ukraine.
The Kremlin may strike nuclear blows on railway stations, bridges, and tunnels in Western Ukraine.
The destruction of logistical routes will reduce the supply of weapons and ammunition to the Ukrainian army by several times.
The Ukrainian army will weaken and will not be able to withstand the advances of the Russian army.
In 2024, Ukraine will surrender.
However, if the supply routes of the Ukrainian army are preserved, the war will continue.
The territories of the battles, cities, and villages of Western Ukraine will be burned and deserted.
A more favorable, at first glance, the ideal scenario can be assumed.
The West will provide the Ukrainian army with many tanks, planes, helicopters, guns, missiles, etc. Russian missiles will not destroy the Dnieper bridges. The Kremlin will not dare to nuclear strikes.
The Ukrainian army will liberate Donbass and Crimea in a few months and will establish itself on the borders of 1991.
All political scientists predict that after this, a palace coup in the Kremlin will remove Putin and his clique.
But the probability that power in Russia will be at the disposal of pro-Western humanist liberals is close to zero.
With a probability of 99%, an extremist, chauvinistic, clerical military junta that hates Ukraine and the West and wants revenge, will seize power.
This junta will completely militarize all resources, economy, and population of Russia like North Korea. It will create an army 10 times larger than the current one. In 1-2 years, this army will attack Ukraine again and will maniacally destroy it.
With such a perspective, investors will not restore Ukraine. The country will remain ruined and cold, without energy and economy. International organizations will support the semi-starvation survival of the population.
Hopes for the destruction of the economy, state, and territory of Russia are unfounded and futile.
The reality of autocracies shows that propaganda and repression can ensure the stability of the economy and the state even when living standards have fallen for many decades, as, for example, in the USSR, Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Kampuchea, and many others.
In Ukraine, which is doomed to be a battlefield between NATO and Russia, as between Scylla and Charybdis, the path of traditional war in any scenario leads to the destruction of the country.
Autocracies are always aggressive.
Therefore, the strategic victory of Ukraine is that an alternative, peaceful social system will be established in Russia instead of autocracy.
The historical experience of the 20th and 21st centuries shows that the most peaceful political system striving for international cooperation is the Republic of Singapore – world.kamerton.global/en/node/335
Other “Asian Tiger” countries – Taiwan, Korea, Hong Kong are similar to Singapore.
In recent decades, similar properties of the social system have been implemented in China, Vietnam, Indonesia. This caused their successful economic development.
The more political systems of other countries differ from Singapore, the more aggressive and less economically productive they are.
When in the 1980s, M. Gorbachev and his team started “Perestroika”, they had some vague intentions to improve socialism by lifting authoritarian bans on public criticism of the political system and on small business.
The concept of “improved socialism” was another utopia and naturally destroyed the USSR and other socialist countries.
Boris Yeltsin's team had precise ideas about the goal of the reforms – a state similar to the USA.
The US Presidential Republic is substantially less effective than the Republic of Singapore and continues to deteriorate.
But, most importantly, instead of a productive evolutionary transformation, Yeltsin's team carried out the revolutionary “Shock therapy”.
Since all revolutions are destructive by definition, this revolution destroyed the Russian economy even more and caused its default.
Only the hugely successful development of China in the 2000s, which significantly increased consumption and world oil prices, saved Russia from political and territorial destruction.
In 2022, the Kremlin junta began a revanchist confrontation with the West, which destroyed the political and economic systems of Russia.
The Kremlin repeats the fundamental mistake of the Gorbachev and Yeltsin cliques – it launches the next revolutionary transformation of the country without any scientific design.
But the Kremlin is making this mistake, which is “worse than a crime,” even deeper and more dangerous.
If the Gorbachev and Yeltsin cliques had at least some, albeit erroneous, intentions and ideas, and acted consciously and purposefully, then the Kremlin-2023 acts senselessly and chaotically, with absolutely no understanding of the future state of the country.
The ideologists of the Kremlin are only capable of the traditional cries of “The West attacks !”, of the curses of “Nazis”, “liberasts”, “Satanists”, of persecuting “nation enemies”, of mobilization and nationalization of the economy, of transferring the export of natural resources from Europe to China.
Like all ignoramuses, they are sure that society can be reorganized arbitrarily, utopically, without substantiating this reorganization on the objective properties of social systems.
As proved theoretically and in hundreds of countries practically, state-run economies operate much less efficiently than market economies and are not capable of qualitative development.
The number of pipelines and roads to China is much less than to Europe. China is a much tougher buyer than European corporations. Therefore, income from exports to China will be significantly less than the former European ones.
From the authoritarian, resource-based, “Yeltsin” “quasi-USA” model, Russia rapidly degrades into the autarkic Iranian-DPRK “Juche”.
High-ranking politicians and officials and generals of the army and law enforcement agencies of Russia dispose of the bulk of the country's resources.
The vast majority of the authoritarian apparatus drags out a relatively miserable existence and will get poorer in the near future due to the destruction of the Russian economy.
Mid-level officials and officers – heads of departments and divisions of ministries and regional governments, judges, colonels, and majors – carry out the actual management of state bodies.
Their loyalty to the Kremlin clique is a necessary factor in the functioning of the state.
Their intellectual level is quite high. They understand the need for a concrete and working concept of the future social structure of Russia and are aware of the absence of such a concept at the current moment. Therefore, they are looking for sources of such a concept in the streams of state propaganda and demagogic slogans of pro-government political groups.
Of the social classes in Russia, the business community is the most interested in creating a republic of the “Singaporean” type and is capable of launching and supporting this process.
Business community organizations will promote the middle strata of the state apparatus, the army, and law enforcement agencies and convince them of the necessity and economic optimality of the “Singaporean” republic.
Propaganda on the scientific basis – world.kamerton.global/en/node/328 – will convince the majority of mid-level officials and officers in Russia in six months.
A new understanding of the optimal structure of Russia will stop the loyalty of the majority of officials and officers to the Kremlin clique.
This majority will support the creation of a republic of the “Singaporean” type and will go to serve in its institutions and bodies.
The necessary condition for the political activity of the divided and disorganized business community in Russia is its consolidation and effective organization.
The creation of new type effective business associations based on alternative functional principles is described in my article "The Self-organization of the Business Community" – world.kamerton.global/en/node/326
Business associations in Ukraine and in the countries of the West and ex-USSR with the participation of businessmen from Russia and Ukraine residing in emigration, the Center for Psychological Operations of Ukraine, and the special services of the West may initiate this process in Russia.
The process of creating a republic of the “Singaporean” type is described in my publication "Technology for Reforming Russia" – world.kamerton.global/index.php/en/node/330
The application of this technology will stop the war in Ukraine in six months.
E. Gershman
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