We usually think that we live in an era of efficient science – space, computers, the Internet. But this is only one part of science – physics, in which research objects are relatively simple. The efficiency of sciences on much more complex objects – biology, psychology, sociology – is many times less.
Listening to political scientists’ verbiage, reading thick books of economists, we often ask ourselves: “Why do the vast majority of their forecasts and recommendations cause damages instead of benefit ? Is this obscure, often demagogic rhetoric really a science?”.
The activity in these supposedly “sciences” violates classical scientific principles, does not meet the criteria of scientificity, and it is not scientific at all.
Doers of these “sciences” simply impose emptiness on us!
Top managers disregard scientific principles and therefore often make wrong decisions that cause corporations to lose billions of dollars.
Politicians ignore scientific principles. Political decisions without scientific justification, based on demagogy, as a rule, cause harm. Therefore, demagogocracies are doomed to collapse and extinction.
They have already brought the Western economy into a state of stagnation, recession and huge debts.
The transformation of the Yuan into a World's reserve currency will bring down the Western economy, very likely by 2030.
Perhaps Civilization will still have time to make the intellectual revolution in order to prevent this global collapse.
Scientific Principles in Business, in Science, in Politics
In Business
A manager makes simple decisions himself. To make more complex decisions, a manager uses advice of experts. A manager can make decisions in this way if he knows the properties of the object being changed and can anticipate the results of its changes.
Modern top managers often make decisions about implementing inventions, technologies, productions, investment, and corporate projects that change very complex economic and social systems.
These systems have technical, organizational, financial, market, competitive, legal, advertising, labor, psychological, logistical, environmental, political and other components. In the vast majority of cases, these systems are too complex. Therefore, managers do not know their properties sufficiently and are not able to foresee the results of their changes.
Therefore, decision-making based on the personal knowledge of managers, in most such cases, causes erroneous decisions, the implementation of which reduces profits and increases losses.
In scientific methodology, the so-called “judicial” method, which minimizes the likelihood of errors in making complex decisions, is well-known. It does not require the manager to have special knowledge of the properties of the systems being changed and to study the projects in detail. Its main principle is to identify possible errors of projects – incorrect terms, logical contradictions, and discrepancies with facts – in the process of discussing the project between its proposers (authors) and opponents (critics).
Opponents report suspected project errors.
Proposers report errors in opponents’ arguments.
The manager mainly studies only the disputed theses of the discussion and draws conclusions about the presence or absence of project errors.
Projects containing errors are rejected.
Thus, decision-making consists of three stages – project preparation, expert discussion, and evaluation by managers.
The materials of the project and its discussions should be presented in the micro-thesis format.
Each thesis should describe one elementary property of the system being changed (investigated) or the process of changing it.
The project must contain three mandatory parts:
Description of the current state of the system being changed, indicating the problems that this project should eliminate;
Description of the target state of the system, which should be achieved as a result of the implementation of this project, indicating the criteria for eliminating the problems;
Description of the process of changing the system from its current state to the target state, indicating the resources available and required to implement this project.
This method is universal and can be used in the management of enterprises, corporations and ministries, for decision-making in political parties, parliaments, and governments.
To some extent, this method coincides with the well-known “Japanese” management method, in which projects of decisions are coordinated with all departments involved.
The more complex the projects, the more this method reduces the probability of erroneous decisions. In corporate projects, this probability decreases several times. In social projects, it decreases by tens of times.
Despite the effectiveness of this method, it is used very rarely in practical management. Some managers simply do not know it. Others save money on expensive experts. Still, others simply do not want to strain their brains studying materials of discussions. They prefer to spend thousands of hours at ineffective meetings, relish their power there, make the most important decisions over food in restaurants and playing golf.
Due to such archaic management, corporations lose billions of dollars every year, the World economy loses trillions of dollars, and technological development of humanity is delayed by decades.
Therefore, owners and shareholders of large businesses should hire only those top managers who can and want to apply scientific principles in making complex decisions.
In Science
Even the thinkers of ancient civilizations discovered the principles of scientific knowledge. Scientific works should not contain words with false meanings, logical contradictions and inconsistencies with facts. But here is the bitter paradox of modern science – three thousand years later, in the 21st century, these principles are still largely ignored and even denied by workers in scientific institutions.
Scientific knowledge consists of descriptions of the elementary properties of the objects under study.
Each such description is a micro-portion of knowledge. In texts, such a description is presented in the form of a separate micro-thesis. Therefore, scientific papers should have a discrete, micro-thesis format.
In terms of its influence on civilization, the use of the phenomenon of the discreteness of scientific knowledge can be compared to the invention of printing.
However, in reality, most scientific papers are presented in a text stream format, in which individual properties of the objects under study are not separated.
This makes it much more difficult to understand them and, especially, to detect errors in them.
The application of scientific principles significantly increases the productivity of synthesizing new knowledge.
Violation of these principles reduces the effectiveness of the scientific activity, especially collective one.
In physics and engineering, scientists generally follow these principles intuitively.
Firstly, because in these areas of science, the objects of research are relatively simple.
Secondly, when scientific principles are violated, the objects of experiments or projects do not function at best, or, at worst, they are destroyed or explode.
In physics and engineering, the insufficient observance of the scientific methodology reduces the efficiency of scientific activity by 1.5-2 times.
In chemistry, in which the objects of research are more complex, the efficiency decreases by 2-3 times.
In biology and medicine, in which the objects of research are even more complex by many orders of magnitude, violation of these principles reduces the effectiveness of scientific activity by 3-5 times.
In particular, because of this, the phenomena of cancer, as well as many other diseases, remain unknown.
The practical disregard for scientific principles in psychology reduces the effectiveness of research tenfold.
Erroneous psychological opuses become the basis of false ethical concepts that are implanted in societies.
The spread of such concepts causes a crisis in the institution of marriage, the birth rate decline, drug addiction, and the inefficiency of pedagogy and education.
In the social allegedly “sciences”, doers fundamentally deny the application of scientific principles in these pseudosciences because of the imaginary specificity of social systems. They assert the impossibility of defining the terms used in them and widely use undefined words. As evidence, they often use analogies and metaphors.
They present their works in the format of an plentiful, low- structured text flow. In it, concrete descriptions of separate elementary properties of the studied objects are practically absent. This greatly hinders detecting mistakes in these works.
In the long-standing debate about what determines the historical process – “the will of the people and leaders” or the objective properties of social systems - most of these workers support the idea of the primacy of will over the nature of society.
They are convinced that society can be arbitrarily constructed according to some utopian, demagogic doctrines, regardless of its inherent properties.
They invent political and legal concepts, bills and decrees that are not based on the objective properties of societies and contradict them.
Complete and even aggressive denial of scientific principles deprives existing sociological institutions, their workers, and their pseudoscience of the right to be called science. That is, traditional “social sciences” are not sciences at all. They imitate intellectual activity and profane science.
In their cozy sinecures, social pseudo scientists sell emptiness to society.
Although many of them are nice intellectuals, in the essence of their activities, the vast majority of them are demagogues, parasites, and swindlers.
They and their predecessors created and propagated utopian demagogic doctrines – Communism, Nazism, Maoism and other lesser "-isms".
In the past 100 years, these doctrines caused local and global catastrophes – revolutions and wars that have destroyed hundreds of millions of people and hundreds of trillions of dollars worth of wealth.
They have created the threat of global thermonuclear war.
These doctrines have disrupted the progress of the underdeveloped countries and caused their degradation.
Today, these pseudo-scientists provide the ideological support to demagogocracies that are suicidally destroying Western civilization.
They create the ideological foundations and demagogic means of new political and military conflicts.
Traditional sociological false knowledge is not only anti-scientific, but it is immoral and malignant, since a significant part of it is intended for the ideological manipulation of the mass consciousness of millions and billions of people in the interests of narrow political groups.
The social harm from neglecting the principles of science consists in the difficulty of detecting the falsity of knowledge. In the social pseudosciences, this detection turns out to be practically impossible. As a result of this, false political doctrines based on demagogy are implemented.
Why do scientists ignore the principles of science?
Although undergraduate and graduate students study epistemology and scientific methodology at universities, they usually do not understand the value of this knowledge for scientific work. Therefore, they forget this knowledge immediately after the exams.
Scientists do not like methodologists' advice on how they should do science.
Observance of scientific principles increases the efficiency of scientific activity, but significantly increases its labour-intensiveness. People avoid stress. Both scientists and consumers of scientific knowledge, to some extent, from 0 in mathematics to 100% in political science, are perverted by the possibilities not to strain the intellect and replace the scientific activity with lies and demagogy.
The public elites do not stimulate scientists to observe the scientific principles in order to increase the effectiveness of science.
On the contrary, violating these principles hinders to detect lies in custom pseudo-scientific works.
One of the main problems in disseminating these principles in the social sciences is that this branch of science is compromised by its traditional demagogy and immorality.
Because of this, scientists capable of scientific thinking disdain the social sciences.
Therefore, the intellectual and business elites should create a new community of social scientists.
This community will have to plant a new culture of knowledge based on the scientific principles.
First of all, it will have to establish an academic standard for the discrete (micro-thesis) format of scientific papers and discussions of them.
Like Archimedes' “fulcrum”, the application of the scientific principles will give intellectual possibilities to solve all the main problems of modern Civilization.
Therefore, natural scientists, aware of the importance of the scientific principles and the great harm from neglecting them, should propagate them.
The business community should sponsor only those universities and scientific institutions that apply and promote the principles of scientific methodology.
In Politics
Until 1917, Mankind developed in a natural, evolutionary way. The Communist revolution in Russia turned this development onto the path of artificial, false, revolutionary transformations of societies. The main cause of this global turn was the lack of scientific knowledge about the properties of social systems and the denial of scientific principles in the social sciences.
The artificial, revolutionary method of development has caused many local and global military conflicts – catastrophic revolutions and wars all over the World.
In the 20th century, many states were created as a result of the artificial dissemination of utopian ideologies – Communism, Socialism, Nazism, Chauvinism, Islamism – that contradict the objective, inherent properties of societies. They all existed for some times.
Due to the unnaturalness of their systems, the efficiency of their economies was low. Gradually, their ideologies bored the elites and the population. All these states collapsed and transformed into capitalist ones.
By now, the intellectual elites still ignore the scientific principles in the social sciences. This deprives them of the ability to adequately evaluate social theories. Government officials and private sponsors do not require the scientific community to follow scientific principles. Therefore, scientific knowledge about society is still not created. This knowledge is replaced by mass demagogy and false ideological and political doctrines.
The social capitalist revolution in Russia, which began in 1987 and continues today, also has no scientific justification, does not correspond to the inherent properties of social systems, and therefore causes enormous damage to Russia and almost the entire World.
Until the 1970s, Western countries were pseudo-democratic bourgeois republics.
In the 1970s, the scientific and technological revolution began. The number of people with university education exceeded half of the population. Socialist professors brainwashed them and instilled social democratic ideas, including to business elites.
As a result, by the 2000s, the Western bourgeois republics transformed into social democratic ones.
The business elite recklessly and cowardly abdicated their political responsibility and ceded power.
The most immoral class – the political clans of demagogues, intriguers and manipulators of the mass consciousness – seized power.
They have established demagogocracy regimes with vicious and inefficient legislation in their countries.
From a political tool, demagoguery has become the basis of power.
The current political elites are interested in preventing the creation of sociological knowledge on the basis of scientific principles, because it will hinder them from arbitrarily manipulating societies.
Due to ignoring scientific principles, the vast majority of political decisions are erroneous, i.e. they cause harm instead of expected benefits.
Western governments are incapable of solving any significant problem.
All strategic problems only worsen.
As a result, the efficiency of Western economies has decreased significantly. Western states increase their debts. In the near future, the economic productivity of the social-democratic countries will still significantly decrease, up to their bankruptcies and collapses.
These processes will be exacerbated by the defeat in competition with China and other efficient countries. Soon, the Chinese currency will acquire the status of a world reserve. After that, the decline of Western economies will accelerate sharply.
Also, as the West weakens, international terrorist movements will attack it more frequently and aggressively.
The historical practice is the criterion of the truth of ideology.
The global experiment of social democratic “improvement” of capitalism has destroyed Western economies.
Their efficiency has decreased to the point of being unable to support the existence of societies.
The ongoing economic decline, inevitable bankruptcy, and demographic extinction of Western civilization clearly prove the falsity of the ideas of social democracy.
The “grimace of History” is that the “gravedigger” of Western capitalism turned out to be not the proletariat, but the cowardly and dull-witted bourgeoisie, which committed political suicide.
The root cause of these global processes is ignoring the principles of scientific methodology.
It causes archaic political management based on demagoguery and false doctrines.
In current circumstances, the probability of the survival of Western civilization can be estimated at 10%.
It can be realized only under the condition of urgent spread of scientific principles in Big business, in science, and in politics.
Western civilization has entered a state of the bifurcation – the impossibility of continuing the previous state and the inevitability of transitioning to one of two new states.
The first possible path is that Western elites will make an intellectual revolution and begin to observe the scientific principles. This will enable them to make adequate and productive decisions. Under this fundamental condition, Civilization will restore its effective development.
An alternative way is that the elites will continue to neglect the scientific principles and make erroneous decisions, and then Civilization will collapse in 15-20 years.
That is, mere adherence to the classical scientific principles separates the possible prosperity of Western civilization from its imminent destruction.
The only social class that is interested in improving political management in the long-term, strategic interests of Western civilization and is able to spread the scientific principles is Big business.
Therefore, the business community should create educational centers to promote the scientific principles and the culture of scientific activity.
Based on the scientific principles, a new generation of scientists will be able to prove the falsity of the prevailing political doctrines to the public elites and disseminate scientific knowledge about social systems.
Based on this knowledge, the business and intellectual elites will evolutionarily transform the legal systems of Western countries into the economically optimal state.
Already in 5-7 years, Western economies will achieve growth of 7-10% per year and ensure the rapid and sustainable development of their countries and the whole World.
E. Gershman
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